The Evolution of the 21st Century Space Race

BlytheRay takes a look at the new space race and the characteristics underpinning this modern era of space exploration.

In recent years, the landscape of space exploration has undergone a seismic shift. What was once a contest between the global superpowers of Russia, China, and the United States, has now evolved into a multi-faceted race featuring a host of international players.

The first space race began in 1955 and was characterised by a focus on advancing national prestige. Both the US and the Soviet Union were chasing the domination of space flight technology, to signify their ultimate political superiority and further national security.

Now, a new era of space exploration has begun and, as the California Management Review outlines, it is “focused to a large extent on resources and commercial goals”. The lunar south pole contains an abundant supply of chemicals used in fuel, and water – a key component in the feasibility of long-term lunar habitation. Many governments are therefore looking to be the first to capitalise on this, alongside astropreneurs, or space entrepreneurs, who are pouring funds into private sector space exploration. This new era presents both remarkable opportunities and complex challenges, with this space race being characterised by an entirely new set of principles.

The Legal Dilemma and the Militarisation of Space

The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 declares that the Moon and other celestial bodies are the province of all humankind. However, this policy has begun to face scrutiny and questions are being generated regarding the ownership of these resources, as nations and private entities begin to set their sights on lunar materials like helium-3. Helium-3, a potential fuel for nuclear fusion, is found beneath the moon’s surface and could revolutionise energy production, making lunar mining a lucrative prospect.

Legal experts and policymakers are grappling with this notion of lunar resources, as the new space race is becoming increasingly categorised by a sense of competition. The Artemis Accords, a series of non-binding guidelines set out by the US, seek to establish norms for lunar exploration and resource utilisation. However, not all countries across the globe are signatories. This divergence hints at potential conflicts over space resources, reminiscent of historical territorial disputes on Earth.

What’s more, the Moon Agreement of 1979 which attempts to regulate the exploitation of lunar resources has not been widely adopted, with major spacefaring nations, such as the US, China, and Russia, abstaining. This lack of consensus underscores the complexities involved in creating a fair and enforceable legal framework for space, and we are beginning to see the impacts of this as countries such as China start to expand their celestial presence.

Beijing has made its ambitions clear, and a spate of successful missions has shown that the government’s bold rhetoric is underscored by its technological prowess. In May 2024, China launched a robotic spacecraft to the far side of the moon in order to pave the way for a base on the lunar south pole. The Chang’e-6 brought back rock and soil samples after a previous mission in April transported a zebrafish into space which, according to The Guardian, was to “test the viability of a large, closed ecosystem…to help people live in space for long periods”.

This success is proving to be concerning for the US, Beijing’s historical rival, with Bill Nelson, head of NASA, fearing that China wants to stake territorial claims in what is “in effect, a race” to return to the moon. “We believe that a lot of their so-called civilian space programme is a military programme,” he told US legislators. These concerns largely stem from Beijing’s development of counter-space weapons, including “missiles that can target satellites, and spacecraft that can pull satellites out of orbit” according to The Guardian.

“On a geopolitical level, China’s space ambitions raise questions about how it might leverage its capabilities to further its political and military interests,” says Dr Svetla Ben-Itzhak from Johns Hopkins University’s Space Scholars Programme. General Stephen Whiting of the US Space Command also suggested China’s advances were “cause for concern”, noting it had tripled the number of spy satellites in orbit over the last six years.

These satellites and other surveillance technologies have become crucial tools in the geopolitical arena. In 2021, China tested a missile that destroyed one of its own satellites, showcasing its capability to threaten space assets. Similarly, Russia has conducted frequent tests of its Nudol anti-satellite system, designed to deflect a nuclear attack on Moscow

The militarisation of space is a growing phenomenon, with nations developing sophisticated capabilities to protect their resources and deter adversaries. The US Space Force, established in 2019, is another example of this trend, with its mandate to protect American interests in space. By enabling real-time intelligence gathering and providing strategic advantages in both peacetime and conflict, the integration of space-based systems into national defence strategies underscores the importance of space in modern warfare.

The Rise of Private Space Enterprises

The privatisation of space exploration has also seen a significant uptick in recent years. Companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab have revolutionised the industry by breaking traditional barriers, increasing innovation, and reducing costs.

SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, has been at the forefront of the sector, achieving milestones such as the first privately funded spacecraft to reach orbit and the successful deployment of reusable rockets. As of 2024, SpaceX alone has conducted over 200 successful launches, a stark contrast to the early days of space exploration which was dominated by government agencies.

Global investment in space startups reached $10 billion last year as venture capitalists poured a significant amount of money into private companies entering the scene. However, this figure is still shy of the “space investment boom of 2021”, where financing increased by 329% from $3.5 billion in 2018 to $15 billion in 2021.

This influx of funding has fuelled advances in satellite technology, space tourism, and potential lunar and Martian missions. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, for example, has ambitious plans for lunar exploration, aiming to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon by the end of the decade.

Private companies are also competing for lucrative contracts from governments and international organisations. SpaceX’s Starlink project aims to provide global broadband internet coverage through a constellation of low-Earth orbit satellites, with over 4,000 already launched. Similarly, OneWeb and Amazon’s Project Kuiper are also vying for a share of the satellite internet market, which is projected to be worth over $58 billion by 2032 according to Market Research Future.

Rocket Lab, a smaller yet still significant player, specialises in delivering satellites into orbit. Its Electron rocket has successfully launched over 150 satellites serving NASA, governments, and private companies alike. This democratisation of space access enables universities, research institutions, and smaller nations to participate in space activities that were previously largely inaccessible.

Government Investment and Global Participation

Whilst the US, China, and Russia remain key players in the new space race, other nations have also begun to make significant strides. The European Space Agency (ESA) has increased its collaboration with private firms, and countries like India, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates have launched various successful missions into space. What’s more, the UK’s burgeoning space industry, bolstered by substantial government funding, is poised to become a critical player. It has committed approximately £400 million to various projects over recent years, largely focusing on satellite technology and spaceports.

India’s space agency, ISRO, continues to make headlines with cost-effective missions. Its Mars Orbiter Mission (Mangalyaan) in 2014 cost only $74 million, in comparison with NASA’s Mars Rover mission totalling $2.9 billion, demonstrating how successful missions need not come with astronomical price tags. The recent Chandrayaan-3 mission aims to land a rover on the Moon and, if successful, would make India the fourth country to achieve a soft landing on the lunar surface, following the US, the Soviet Union, and China.

Japan’s JAXA has been equally ambitious with projects like the Hayabusa2 mission which, in 2020, returned invaluable samples from the asteroid Ryugu and showcased the country’s technological prowess. The UAE has also made remarkable progress with its Mars mission, Hope, which successfully entered Martian orbit in February 2021. This mission makes the UAE the first Arab nation to reach Mars, marking a significant milestone for the country’s burgeoning space programme.

Ultimately, the new space race is a complex, multi-dimensional contest that extends far beyond mere exploration. It encompasses commercial ambitions, national pride, legal debates, and military strategies. As more players enter this arena, international cooperation and regulation will be crucial to ensuring that space remains a domain of peaceful exploration and innovation. The stakes are high, and the outcome of this race will most certainly shape the future of humanity’s presence in the cosmos.